Brewers @ Astros
2026-05-30Win probability
MIL
75.0%
HOU
15.3%
Extras needed
9.7%
Expected runs
MIL expected
5.86
HOU expected
3.30
Total expected
9.16
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIL–HOU) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.69% |
| 6 – 2 | 3.55% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.22% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.22% |
| 7 – 3 | 3.05% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.00% |
| 5 – 2 | 2.85% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.78% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| 6.5 | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| 7.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 8.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 9.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →