MLB Sims

Brewers @ Astros

2026-05-30

Daikin Park · park factor 1.02 · first pitch 2026-05-30T20:10:00Z

Win probability

MIL
75.0%
HOU
15.3%
Extras needed
9.7%

Expected runs

MIL expected
5.86
HOU expected
3.30
Total expected
9.16
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (MIL–HOU)Probability
5 – 33.69%
6 – 23.55%
6 – 33.22%
6 – 43.22%
7 – 33.05%
4 – 33.00%
5 – 22.85%
5 – 42.78%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 31.7% 68.3%
6.5 80.4% 19.6%
7.5 69.7% 30.3%
8.5 56.5% 43.5%
9.5 43.9% 56.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →