Marlins @ Mets
2026-05-30Win probability
MIA
35.6%
NYM
51.9%
Extras needed
12.6%
Expected runs
MIA expected
4.51
NYM expected
5.16
Total expected
9.66
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–NYM) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.50% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.35% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.94% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.81% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.79% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.76% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.71% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.63% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| 6.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| 7.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 8.5 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 9.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →