MLB Sims

Angels @ Rays

2026-05-30

Tropicana Field · park factor 0.97 · first pitch 2026-05-30T20:10:00Z

Win probability

LAA
18.5%
TB
71.8%
Extras needed
9.6%

Expected runs

LAA expected
3.96
TB expected
6.32
Total expected
10.27
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14

Most likely final scores

Score (LAA–TB)Probability
3 – 63.45%
3 – 73.07%
4 – 53.07%
4 – 62.97%
3 – 52.84%
2 – 52.60%
5 – 72.52%
4 – 72.41%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 45.1% 54.9%
6.5 88.5% 11.5%
7.5 80.2% 19.8%
8.5 70.1% 29.9%
9.5 58.0% 42.0%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →