MLB Sims

Royals @ Rangers

2026-05-30

Globe Life Field · park factor 1.01 · first pitch 2026-05-30T20:05:00Z

Win probability

KC
21.5%
TEX
64.2%
Extras needed
14.3%

Expected runs

KC expected
2.22
TEX expected
3.63
Total expected
5.84
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 9

Most likely final scores

Score (KC–TEX)Probability
2 – 35.79%
2 – 45.16%
1 – 35.00%
2 – 24.88%
1 – 44.41%
1 – 24.27%
3 – 33.92%
2 – 53.92%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 3.4% 96.6%
6.5 37.0% 63.0%
7.5 23.2% 76.8%
8.5 13.5% 86.5%
9.5 7.0% 93.0%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →