Cubs @ Cardinals
2026-05-30Win probability
CHC
54.5%
STL
33.2%
Extras needed
12.3%
Expected runs
CHC expected
5.32
STL expected
4.46
Total expected
9.78
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–STL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.32% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.11% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.09% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.08% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.02% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.96% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.87% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.70% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 6.5 | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| 7.5 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 8.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 9.5 | 51.7% | 48.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →