Red Sox @ Indians
2026-05-30Win probability
BOS
37.8%
CLE
47.1%
Extras needed
15.1%
Expected runs
BOS expected
3.50
CLE expected
3.85
Total expected
7.36
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (BOS–CLE) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.31% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.31% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.75% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.69% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.64% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.63% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.39% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.19% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| 6.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 7.5 | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 8.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 9.5 | 20.7% | 79.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →