Braves @ Reds
2026-05-30Win probability
ATL
83.1%
CIN
10.2%
Extras needed
6.7%
Expected runs
ATL expected
7.41
CIN expected
3.80
Total expected
11.21
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–CIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7 – 3 | 3.06% |
| 8 – 4 | 2.87% |
| 8 – 3 | 2.83% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.77% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.69% |
| 8 – 2 | 2.65% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.52% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.49% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 6.5 | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| 7.5 | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| 8.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 9.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →