D-backs @ Mariners
2026-05-30Win probability
ARI
36.4%
SEA
49.6%
Extras needed
14.0%
Expected runs
ARI expected
3.99
SEA expected
4.48
Total expected
8.47
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (ARI–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.77% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.71% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.48% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.38% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.31% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.29% |
| 2 – 4 | 2.97% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.92% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| 6.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 7.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 8.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 9.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →