Blue Jays @ Orioles
2026-05-29Win probability
TOR
36.4%
BAL
49.6%
Extras needed
14.0%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.65
BAL expected
4.11
Total expected
7.77
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.38% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.80% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.71% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.68% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.47% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.22% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.19% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.16% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 15.6% | 84.4% |
| 6.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 7.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 8.5 | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| 9.5 | 24.9% | 75.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →