Padres @ Nationals
2026-05-29Win probability
SD
60.4%
WSH
28.9%
Extras needed
10.7%
Expected runs
SD expected
6.47
WSH expected
5.11
Total expected
11.58
Total — 10/median/90
8 / 11 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (SD–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 4 | 2.88% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.64% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.62% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.54% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.45% |
| 7 – 5 | 2.32% |
| 7 – 6 | 2.30% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.25% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 6.5 | 94.8% | 5.2% |
| 7.5 | 90.2% | 9.8% |
| 8.5 | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 9.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →