MLB Sims

Phillies @ Dodgers

2026-05-29

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-30T02:15:00Z

Win probability

PHI
32.7%
LAD
52.2%
Extras needed
15.1%

Expected runs

PHI expected
3.00
LAD expected
3.65
Total expected
6.65
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 7 / 10

Most likely final scores

Score (PHI–LAD)Probability
3 – 34.99%
2 – 34.70%
3 – 44.39%
2 – 44.32%
2 – 23.80%
3 – 23.80%
4 – 33.59%
1 – 33.27%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 7.9% 92.1%
6.5 50.4% 49.6%
7.5 35.5% 64.5%
8.5 23.3% 76.7%
9.5 14.3% 85.7%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →