Yankees @ Athletics
2026-05-29Win probability
NYY
82.7%
OAK
9.9%
Extras needed
7.4%
Expected runs
NYY expected
6.27
OAK expected
2.95
Total expected
9.22
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYY–OAK) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 2 | 3.67% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.64% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.44% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.29% |
| 7 – 3 | 3.16% |
| 7 – 2 | 3.10% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.86% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.78% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 6.5 | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 7.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 8.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| 9.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →