Twins @ Pirates
2026-05-29Win probability
MIN
26.1%
PIT
63.1%
Extras needed
10.8%
Expected runs
MIN expected
4.84
PIT expected
6.54
Total expected
11.38
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 6 | 2.91% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.89% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.81% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.57% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.46% |
| 3 – 7 | 2.42% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.38% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.28% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 6.5 | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| 7.5 | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| 8.5 | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| 9.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →