Marlins @ Mets
2026-05-29Win probability
MIA
36.2%
NYM
50.9%
Extras needed
12.9%
Expected runs
MIA expected
4.31
NYM expected
4.83
Total expected
9.14
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–NYM) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.62% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.38% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.20% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.16% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.88% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.80% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.72% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.68% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 6.5 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 7.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 8.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 9.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →