Cubs @ Cardinals
2026-05-29Win probability
CHC
54.9%
STL
32.6%
Extras needed
12.6%
Expected runs
CHC expected
5.33
STL expected
4.37
Total expected
9.69
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–STL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.34% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.07% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.04% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.94% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.85% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.84% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.71% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.59% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 6.5 | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 7.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 8.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| 9.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →