MLB Sims

Red Sox @ Indians

2026-05-29

Progressive Field · park factor 0.98 · first pitch 2026-05-29T23:10:00Z

Win probability

BOS
38.8%
CLE
46.3%
Extras needed
15.0%

Expected runs

BOS expected
3.58
CLE expected
3.88
Total expected
7.46
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11

Most likely final scores

Score (BOS–CLE)Probability
3 – 34.33%
4 – 34.25%
3 – 44.21%
4 – 43.89%
2 – 33.60%
2 – 43.55%
3 – 23.40%
4 – 23.13%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 13.0% 87.0%
6.5 61.7% 38.3%
7.5 46.7% 53.3%
8.5 32.7% 67.3%
9.5 21.1% 78.8%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →