D-backs @ Mariners
2026-05-29Win probability
ARI
37.5%
SEA
48.9%
Extras needed
13.6%
Expected runs
ARI expected
3.88
SEA expected
4.32
Total expected
8.20
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (ARI–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.74% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.69% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.66% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.58% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.53% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.10% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.01% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.92% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| 6.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 7.5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 8.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 9.5 | 30.6% | 69.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →