Blue Jays @ Orioles
2026-05-28Win probability
TOR
36.0%
BAL
50.5%
Extras needed
13.5%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.79
BAL expected
4.33
Total expected
8.11
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.11% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.81% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.72% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.58% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.27% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.18% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.07% |
| 2 – 3 | 2.96% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| 6.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 7.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 8.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| 9.5 | 29.9% | 70.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →