Astros @ Rangers
2026-05-28Win probability
HOU
44.0%
TEX
41.0%
Extras needed
15.0%
Expected runs
HOU expected
3.54
TEX expected
3.47
Total expected
7.01
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–TEX) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.70% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.30% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.11% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.91% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.88% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.75% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.36% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.32% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 10.4% | 89.5% |
| 6.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 7.5 | 39.6% | 60.3% |
| 8.5 | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 9.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →