Cubs @ Pirates
2026-05-28Win probability
CHC
33.4%
PIT
55.0%
Extras needed
11.6%
Expected runs
CHC expected
5.23
PIT expected
6.17
Total expected
11.41
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 5 | 2.81% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.76% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.68% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.65% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.56% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.50% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.31% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.30% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 6.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| 7.5 | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| 8.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 9.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →