Braves @ Red Sox
2026-05-28Win probability
ATL
74.4%
BOS
15.5%
Extras needed
10.0%
Expected runs
ATL expected
5.20
BOS expected
2.78
Total expected
7.98
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 2 | 3.94% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.93% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.75% |
| 6 – 2 | 3.56% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.37% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.24% |
| 4 – 1 | 2.97% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| 6.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 7.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 8.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| 9.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →