MLB Sims

Nationals @ Indians

2026-05-27

Progressive Field · park factor 0.98 · first pitch 2026-05-27T17:10:00Z

Win probability

WSH
42.3%
CLE
44.4%
Extras needed
13.3%

Expected runs

WSH expected
4.34
CLE expected
4.42
Total expected
8.76
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (WSH–CLE)Probability
4 – 43.64%
5 – 43.39%
4 – 33.32%
3 – 43.13%
3 – 33.06%
4 – 53.06%
3 – 53.00%
5 – 32.81%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 27.1% 72.9%
6.5 76.7% 23.3%
7.5 64.6% 35.4%
8.5 51.2% 48.8%
9.5 38.3% 61.7%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →