Rays @ Orioles
2026-05-27Win probability
TB
43.0%
BAL
44.1%
Extras needed
12.9%
Expected runs
TB expected
4.79
BAL expected
4.85
Total expected
9.64
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (TB–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.23% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.20% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.00% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.98% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.98% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.79% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.75% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.68% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 6.5 | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| 7.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 8.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 9.5 | 49.7% | 50.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →