Mariners @ Athletics
2026-05-27Win probability
SEA
68.0%
OAK
21.7%
Extras needed
10.3%
Expected runs
SEA expected
5.88
OAK expected
3.90
Total expected
9.78
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (SEA–OAK) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.49% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.47% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.36% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.22% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.86% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.79% |
| 7 – 3 | 2.71% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.61% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| 6.5 | 86.2% | 13.7% |
| 7.5 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 8.5 | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 9.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →