Phillies @ Padres
2026-05-27Win probability
PHI
46.8%
SD
36.6%
Extras needed
16.6%
Expected runs
PHI expected
3.35
SD expected
2.99
Total expected
6.34
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (PHI–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 5.00% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.78% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.48% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.43% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.90% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.87% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.60% |
| 3 – 1 | 3.20% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 6.2% | 93.8% |
| 6.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 7.5 | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| 8.5 | 19.1% | 80.9% |
| 9.5 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →