Yankees @ Royals
2026-05-27Win probability
NYY
61.7%
KC
25.6%
Extras needed
12.8%
Expected runs
NYY expected
4.39
KC expected
3.11
Total expected
7.50
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYY–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.32% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.17% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.86% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.68% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.62% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.56% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.95% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.79% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| 6.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| 7.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 8.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| 9.5 | 22.4% | 77.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →