Marlins @ Blue Jays
2026-05-27Win probability
MIA
27.5%
TOR
60.3%
Extras needed
12.2%
Expected runs
MIA expected
4.16
TOR expected
5.48
Total expected
9.64
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–TOR) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.29% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.15% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.88% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.80% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.69% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.60% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| 6.5 | 84.9% | 15.1% |
| 7.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 8.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 9.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →