MLB Sims

Astros @ Rangers

2026-05-27

Globe Life Field · park factor 1.01 · first pitch 2026-05-28T00:05:00Z

Win probability

HOU
42.1%
TEX
42.8%
Extras needed
15.2%

Expected runs

HOU expected
3.51
TEX expected
3.52
Total expected
7.03
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11

Most likely final scores

Score (HOU–TEX)Probability
3 – 34.31%
2 – 34.28%
3 – 44.16%
4 – 34.16%
3 – 23.94%
4 – 43.73%
2 – 23.50%
2 – 43.43%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 10.1% 89.9%
6.5 55.9% 44.1%
7.5 40.5% 59.5%
8.5 27.5% 72.5%
9.5 17.1% 82.9%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →