Reds @ Mets
2026-05-27Win probability
CIN
50.8%
NYM
35.9%
Extras needed
13.3%
Expected runs
CIN expected
4.87
NYM expected
4.29
Total expected
9.16
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (CIN–NYM) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.55% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.39% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.31% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.99% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.97% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.94% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.91% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.84% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 6.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 7.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| 8.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 9.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →