Cubs @ Pirates
2026-05-27Win probability
CHC
27.1%
PIT
61.8%
Extras needed
11.1%
Expected runs
CHC expected
4.79
PIT expected
6.28
Total expected
11.07
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 6 | 2.93% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.91% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.90% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.85% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.51% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.39% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.30% |
| 3 – 7 | 2.29% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 6.5 | 92.3% | 7.7% |
| 7.5 | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| 8.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 9.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →