Braves @ Red Sox
2026-05-27Win probability
ATL
82.0%
BOS
10.2%
Extras needed
7.8%
Expected runs
ATL expected
5.56
BOS expected
2.52
Total expected
8.08
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 2 | 4.44% |
| 5 – 2 | 4.31% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.01% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.49% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.49% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.42% |
| 5 – 1 | 3.23% |
| 7 – 2 | 3.23% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| 6.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 7.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 8.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 9.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →