MLB Sims

Braves @ Red Sox

2026-05-27

Fenway Park · park factor 1.04 · first pitch 2026-05-27T22:45:00Z

Win probability

ATL
82.0%
BOS
10.2%
Extras needed
7.8%

Expected runs

ATL expected
5.56
BOS expected
2.52
Total expected
8.08
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (ATL–BOS)Probability
6 – 24.44%
5 – 24.31%
4 – 24.01%
6 – 33.49%
5 – 33.49%
4 – 33.42%
5 – 13.23%
7 – 23.23%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 19.3% 80.7%
6.5 69.7% 30.3%
7.5 56.1% 43.9%
8.5 41.9% 58.1%
9.5 29.2% 70.8%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →