D-backs @ Giants
2026-05-27Win probability
ARI
54.4%
SF
33.1%
Extras needed
12.5%
Expected runs
ARI expected
4.95
SF expected
4.16
Total expected
9.11
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (ARI–SF) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.52% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.37% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.33% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.18% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.10% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.07% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.05% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.78% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| 6.5 | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| 7.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 8.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 9.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →