MLB Sims

Nationals @ Indians

2026-05-26

Progressive Field · park factor 0.98 · first pitch 2026-05-26T22:10:00Z

Win probability

WSH
38.6%
CLE
48.2%
Extras needed
13.3%

Expected runs

WSH expected
4.22
CLE expected
4.55
Total expected
8.77
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (WSH–CLE)Probability
4 – 43.83%
3 – 43.70%
4 – 53.34%
3 – 53.33%
5 – 43.17%
5 – 33.02%
3 – 32.84%
4 – 32.82%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 27.0% 73.0%
6.5 77.2% 22.8%
7.5 65.6% 34.4%
8.5 51.7% 48.3%
9.5 38.4% 61.6%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →