Rays @ Orioles
2026-05-26Win probability
TB
47.1%
BAL
40.2%
Extras needed
12.8%
Expected runs
TB expected
5.08
BAL expected
4.78
Total expected
9.87
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (TB–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.12% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.11% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.04% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.78% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.63% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.57% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.50% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| 6.5 | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| 7.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 8.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| 9.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →