MLB Sims

Cardinals @ Brewers

2026-05-26

American Family Field · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-26T23:40:00Z

Win probability

STL
31.3%
MIL
55.7%
Extras needed
13.1%

Expected runs

STL expected
4.12
MIL expected
5.06
Total expected
9.18
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (STL–MIL)Probability
3 – 53.63%
4 – 43.49%
3 – 43.43%
4 – 53.38%
5 – 43.03%
5 – 52.93%
4 – 62.80%
3 – 32.73%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 31.6% 68.4%
6.5 81.0% 19.1%
7.5 69.9% 30.1%
8.5 56.6% 43.4%
9.5 43.3% 56.7%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →