Mariners @ Athletics
2026-05-26Win probability
SEA
65.9%
OAK
23.3%
Extras needed
10.8%
Expected runs
SEA expected
6.00
OAK expected
4.17
Total expected
10.17
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (SEA–OAK) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.04% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.00% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.88% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.84% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.79% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.76% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.70% |
| 7 – 3 | 2.63% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 6.5 | 87.9% | 12.1% |
| 7.5 | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 8.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| 9.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →