Phillies @ Padres
2026-05-26Win probability
PHI
46.8%
SD
37.7%
Extras needed
15.5%
Expected runs
PHI expected
3.34
SD expected
3.05
Total expected
6.40
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (PHI–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 2 | 5.04% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.55% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.36% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.26% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.09% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.97% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.58% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.45% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 5.8% | 94.2% |
| 6.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 7.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| 8.5 | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| 9.5 | 11.4% | 88.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →