Yankees @ Royals
2026-05-26Win probability
NYY
48.6%
KC
35.8%
Extras needed
15.6%
Expected runs
NYY expected
3.70
KC expected
3.29
Total expected
6.99
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYY–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.72% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.50% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.27% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.98% |
| 2 – 2 | 3.69% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.66% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.58% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.51% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 9.4% | 90.6% |
| 6.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 7.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| 8.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| 9.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →