Twins @ White Sox
2026-05-26Win probability
MIN
34.2%
CWS
53.3%
Extras needed
12.5%
Expected runs
MIN expected
4.57
CWS expected
5.34
Total expected
9.90
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–CWS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.55% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.18% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.04% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.04% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.94% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.92% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.88% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.58% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 6.5 | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| 7.5 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 8.5 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| 9.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →