Marlins @ Blue Jays
2026-05-26Win probability
MIA
32.6%
TOR
55.1%
Extras needed
12.2%
Expected runs
MIA expected
4.44
TOR expected
5.25
Total expected
9.68
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–TOR) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.50% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.33% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.08% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.05% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.97% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.84% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.80% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.40% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| 6.5 | 84.9% | 15.1% |
| 7.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 8.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 9.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →