MLB Sims

Astros @ Rangers

2026-05-26

Globe Life Field · park factor 1.01 · first pitch 2026-05-27T00:05:00Z

Win probability

HOU
44.6%
TEX
39.2%
Extras needed
16.2%

Expected runs

HOU expected
3.28
TEX expected
3.09
Total expected
6.37
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10

Most likely final scores

Score (HOU–TEX)Probability
3 – 35.13%
3 – 25.07%
2 – 34.67%
2 – 24.31%
4 – 34.07%
4 – 24.00%
3 – 43.95%
2 – 43.33%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 5.9% 94.1%
6.5 44.9% 55.1%
7.5 30.5% 69.5%
8.5 19.3% 80.7%
9.5 11.3% 88.7%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →