Astros @ Rangers
2026-05-26Win probability
HOU
44.6%
TEX
39.2%
Extras needed
16.2%
Expected runs
HOU expected
3.28
TEX expected
3.09
Total expected
6.37
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–TEX) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 5.13% |
| 3 – 2 | 5.07% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.67% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.31% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.07% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.00% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.95% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.33% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| 6.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 7.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 8.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| 9.5 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →