Reds @ Mets
2026-05-26Win probability
CIN
46.0%
NYM
41.0%
Extras needed
13.0%
Expected runs
CIN expected
4.69
NYM expected
4.50
Total expected
9.20
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (CIN–NYM) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.40% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.35% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.34% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.25% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.15% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.03% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.93% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.65% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.6% | 68.5% |
| 6.5 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| 7.5 | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 8.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 9.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →