Cubs @ Pirates
2026-05-26Win probability
CHC
35.8%
PIT
51.9%
Extras needed
12.3%
Expected runs
CHC expected
5.10
PIT expected
5.72
Total expected
10.82
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.27% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.93% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.89% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.78% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.63% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.47% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.41% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.35% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 6.5 | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| 7.5 | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 8.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 9.5 | 64.0% | 36.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →