Braves @ Red Sox
2026-05-26Win probability
ATL
81.5%
BOS
10.2%
Extras needed
8.3%
Expected runs
ATL expected
5.38
BOS expected
2.38
Total expected
7.76
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 2 | 4.61% |
| 5 – 2 | 4.52% |
| 5 – 1 | 4.01% |
| 6 – 2 | 3.69% |
| 4 – 1 | 3.52% |
| 6 – 1 | 3.44% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.40% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.37% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| 6.5 | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 7.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 8.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| 9.5 | 25.4% | 74.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →