MLB Sims

Braves @ Red Sox

2026-05-26

Fenway Park · park factor 1.04 · first pitch 2026-05-26T22:45:00Z

Win probability

ATL
81.5%
BOS
10.2%
Extras needed
8.3%

Expected runs

ATL expected
5.38
BOS expected
2.38
Total expected
7.76
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 11

Most likely final scores

Score (ATL–BOS)Probability
4 – 24.61%
5 – 24.52%
5 – 14.01%
6 – 23.69%
4 – 13.52%
6 – 13.44%
5 – 33.40%
3 – 23.37%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 16.1% 83.9%
6.5 64.8% 35.2%
7.5 50.5% 49.5%
8.5 37.3% 62.7%
9.5 25.4% 74.6%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →