D-backs @ Giants
2026-05-26Win probability
ARI
51.4%
SF
35.4%
Extras needed
13.2%
Expected runs
ARI expected
4.77
SF expected
4.13
Total expected
8.91
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (ARI–SF) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.67% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.40% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.23% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.22% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.89% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.84% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.82% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.72% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| 6.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
| 7.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 8.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 9.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →