MLB Sims

Nationals @ Indians

2026-05-25

Progressive Field · park factor 0.98 · first pitch 2026-05-25T22:10:00Z

Win probability

WSH
31.0%
CLE
55.6%
Extras needed
13.5%

Expected runs

WSH expected
3.79
CLE expected
4.72
Total expected
8.51
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (WSH–CLE)Probability
4 – 43.61%
3 – 43.57%
4 – 53.41%
3 – 53.34%
4 – 33.29%
2 – 43.17%
3 – 62.97%
3 – 32.95%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 23.7% 76.3%
6.5 75.0% 25.0%
7.5 62.1% 37.9%
8.5 48.8% 51.2%
9.5 35.6% 64.4%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →