Rays @ Orioles
2026-05-25Win probability
TB
49.1%
BAL
37.5%
Extras needed
13.4%
Expected runs
TB expected
4.91
BAL expected
4.41
Total expected
9.33
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (TB–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.29% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.09% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.04% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.96% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.93% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.92% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.87% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.82% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 6.5 | 81.2% | 18.8% |
| 7.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 8.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| 9.5 | 45.5% | 54.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →