MLB Sims

Cardinals @ Brewers

2026-05-25

American Family Field · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-25T18:10:00Z

Win probability

STL
35.5%
MIL
51.5%
Extras needed
13.0%

Expected runs

STL expected
4.38
MIL expected
5.01
Total expected
9.39
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (STL–MIL)Probability
4 – 43.49%
4 – 53.34%
3 – 43.25%
3 – 53.05%
5 – 52.99%
4 – 32.77%
5 – 42.72%
4 – 62.70%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 34.1% 65.9%
6.5 83.0% 17.0%
7.5 72.3% 27.7%
8.5 59.7% 40.3%
9.5 46.5% 53.5%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →