Mariners @ Athletics
2026-05-25Win probability
SEA
59.4%
OAK
28.9%
Extras needed
11.7%
Expected runs
SEA expected
5.63
OAK expected
4.34
Total expected
9.97
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (SEA–OAK) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 4 | 3.20% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.10% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.95% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.92% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.75% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.67% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.54% |
| 7 – 3 | 2.52% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| 6.5 | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| 7.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 8.5 | 66.0% | 34.1% |
| 9.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →