Phillies @ Padres
2026-05-25Win probability
PHI
43.7%
SD
39.8%
Extras needed
16.5%
Expected runs
PHI expected
3.41
SD expected
3.27
Total expected
6.69
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (PHI–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 5.21% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.39% |
| 2 – 3 | 4.25% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.07% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.02% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.98% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.41% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 7.7% | 92.3% |
| 6.5 | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 7.5 | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| 8.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| 9.5 | 13.8% | 86.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →